Indonesia's election

The ruling Democratic Party is set to prosper

With just over two weeks to go before Indonesia's legislative elections on April 9th, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party (PD) has further extended its lead in opinion polls. If the PD performs as well as expected, it will be able to nominate Mr Yudhoyono as its presidential candidate without seeking coalition partners. Moreover, despite the worsening economic climate, Mr Yudhoyono is already firmly on track to win re-election later this year. The president will be pressed to defend the performance of his government during his campaign, but he lacks a credible challenger.

A recent survey by a local pollster, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), found that 24% of voters intended to vote for the PD in April, compared with 17.3% for the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) and 15.9% for Golkar, which is currently the largest party in the legislature and has been a cornerstone of Mr Yudhoyono's first-term administration. The same poll found that 50.3% of respondents would vote for Mr Yudhoyono, compared with only 18.5% favouring the PDI-P leader, Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is Mr Yudhoyono's closest challenger. This level of support would be enough to prevent the presidential election scheduled in July from going to a second-round run-off between the two leading candidates in September.

Significant support

The level of support currently enjoyed by the PD is significant for a number of reasons. First, parties must win 20% of the national vote to nominate their own presidential candidates. Given its current popularity, the PD will be able to nominate Mr Yudhoyono without being forced into a coalition arrangement. The alliance forged between the PD and Golkar in 2004 hampered reforms during Mr Yudhoyono's first term in office, owing to Golkar's conservative stance and the vested interests within its ranks. Many PD members are now entertaining the prospect of forming a second-term government without Golkar. However, should the PD's election performance prove less impressive than its current poll numbers, the party would probably continue its alliance with Golkar.

Mr Yudhoyono's high levels of support also suggest a wider range of options for his vice-presidential candidate, raising the likelihood that he will part company with Jusuf Kalla, the current vice-president and Golkar chairman. The president would also have a strong base of support in the legislature during his second term in office—an advantage that he consistently lacked in his first term. In the last legislative election the PD won just 10% of the seats.

Rumours that Mr Yudhoyono is considering alternative presidential candidates have placed pressure on Mr Kalla to stand as a candidate in his own right. Although the vice-president has stopped short of explicitly declaring his intentions, he has said repeatedly that he would be ready to accept the Golkar nomination, if it were offered to him. Mr Kalla does not enjoy the wide base of public support required to claim the presidency, and his best chance of prolonging his political career lies in maintaining his partnership with Mr Yudhoyono. However, pressure from within his party is currently such that the decision may be taken out of his hands.

Outlook

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Yudhoyono to be re-elected, but he will be on the defensive in the coming months as the economy goes through a recession and unemployment rises. The president's critics will also become more vocal on other aspects of his performance, with reform groups expressing frustration at the continued prevalence of corruption. Popular resentment of foreign involvement in the economy, particularly in the resources sector, is also on the rise. Mr Yudhoyono, a champion of foreign investors, could become a target for nationalist anger as the economy slows.

Nonetheless, there are a number of factors working in Mr Yudhoyono's favour. Most importantly, prices for a number of goods and services have fallen in recent months, which should ease much of the resentment created by increasing costs in 2008. Recent declines in global oil prices have permitted the president to lower subsidised fuel prices three times since December 1st. The disbursement of cash handouts to poor families as compensation for higher fuel prices has also boosted his popularity.

Last but not least, Mr Yudhoyono will benefit from the absence of a strong opponent. Ms Megawati may just have sufficient support to prevent Mr Yudhoyono from winning the 50% of the popular vote that he requires to secure the presidency in the first round in July. However, the PDI-P leader remains discredited outside of her main centres of support on the islands of Java and Bali, owing to her poor performance as president in 2001-04.